NSE: GMRAIRPORT | BSE: 532754 | Sector: Infrastructure — Airport Operations
Rating: ACCUMULATE | 6M Target: ₹125 | 12M Target: ₹155 | CMP: ₹102 | February 2026
Investment Snapshot
| Parameter | Value | Parameter | Value |
| Current Price (CMP) | ₹101.90 (Feb 17, 2026) | Market Cap | ~₹1,05,379 Cr (~$12.5B) |
| 52-Week High | ~₹110 | 52-Week Low | ~₹63 |
| Promoter Holding | 66.2% | FII / DII Holding | ~33.8% |
| FY25 Revenue | ₹13,733 Cr | FY25 Net Loss | ~₹181 Cr |
| Q3 FY26 Total Income | ₹4,083 Cr (+49% YoY) | Q3 FY26 EBITDA | ₹1,789 Cr (+65% YoY) |
| 9M FY26 Revenue | ~₹10,958 Cr | 9M FY26 EBITDA | ~₹4,485 Cr |
| Gross Debt | ~₹29,000-31,000 Cr | EV/EBITDA (FY26E) | ~18-20x |
| Passengers Served (FY25) | 120M+ (globally) | India Traffic Share | 27.5% of India pax |
| 6M Target | ₹125 (~23% upside) | 12M Target | ₹155 (~52% upside) |
Rating and Price Targets
We initiate coverage on GMR Airports Limited (GMRAIRPORT) with an ACCUMULATE rating. The company stands at a pivotal inflection point: the long-awaited DIAL CP4 Tariff Order has been implemented (Q2 FY26), driving an extraordinary 47-50% YoY revenue surge across recent quarters. With Bhogapuram (Vizag) Airport targeting commissioning in Q2 FY27, non-aero adjacency businesses ramping up, credit ratings being upgraded, and India’s aviation market on a structural growth trajectory, GMR offers compelling multi-year upside from the current price of ~₹102.
| Horizon | Target Price | Upside | Rating | Primary Catalyst |
| 6 Months (Aug 2026) | ₹125 | ~23% | ACCUMULATE | Q4 FY26 earnings; Bhogapuram commissioning; non-aero ramp |
| 12 Months (Feb 2027) | ₹155 | ~52% | ACCUMULATE | Bhogapuram full revenue; Crete handover; real estate monetization |
Company Overview
GMR Airports Limited (formerly GMR Airports Infrastructure Limited) is India’s largest private airport operator, Asia’s largest, and the second-largest globally by number of airport assets under operation or development. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in New Delhi, GMR has built one of the most comprehensive airport platforms in the world. The company operates and develops airports under the GMR AERO brand, providing integrated aviation solutions across aeronautical services, retail, cargo, real estate, and MRO.
In FY25, GMR served over 120 million passengers globally across its airport portfolio and commanded a 27.5% share of India’s total passenger traffic. Its flagship assets — Delhi (DIAL) and Hyderabad (GHIAL) — consistently win ACI Skytrax awards for service excellence. Delhi Airport improved its global ranking from 36th in 2024 to 32nd in 2025, while Hyderabad ranks as the 4th fastest-growing airport globally in 2025 with a 25.6% jump in seat capacity.
Airport Portfolio — India Operations
| Airport | Entity | GMR Stake | FY25 Pax | Capacity | Status / Key Note |
| Delhi Intl. (IGI) | DIAL | 50.1% | ~72M | 100M+ (Phase 3) | CP4 tariff in force; Cargo City SPV; Duty Free taken over Jul 2025 |
| Hyderabad Intl. | GHIAL | 63%+ | ~24M | 45M (expanded) | Safran MRO inaugurated; INR 21Bn NCD; ₹10/shr FY25 dividend |
| Mopa (Goa) | GGIAL | 100% | 4.7M | 7.7M (Phase 1 done) | 2nd year of ops; EBITDA positive; 53yr concession life remaining |
| Bhogapuram (Vizag) | Subsidiary | 100% | Greenfield | 4M (Phase 1) | 95.8% complete; Target: Q2 FY27; L&T EPC contract |
| Nagpur Intl. | GMR Nagpur | 100% | ~3M | 30M (ultimate) | Concession signed Oct 2024; takeover underway |
International Airport Portfolio
| Airport | Country | GMR Role | FY26 Q1 Pax | Status |
| Sultan Iskandar Muda (Medan) | Indonesia | Operating partner | 1.76M (+3.2% YoY) | Full operations; EBITDA +38% YoY |
| Crete International Airport | Greece | Developing + Operator | Greenfield | 65% construction complete; debt-free project |
| Mactan Cebu Intl. | Philippines | Technical Services Provider | 2.9M (+2% YoY) | Equity stake divested; tech services till Dec 2026 |
Non-Aero Adjacency Business Platforms
- Duty Free: Delhi Duty Free taken over and operating from Jul 2025 (previously third-party operated); Hyderabad Duty Free already operated by GMR. Full quarter benefit reflected from Q2 FY26 onwards. GMR Cargo and Logistics Ltd (GCLL) SPV set up with ₹7.5 Bn loan to develop the Cargo City at DIAL.
- MRO (Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul): Safran MRO facility (0.46 Mn sq.ft.) at Hyderabad inaugurated November 2025. GHIAL secured a 3-year MRO contract from Akasa Air — expanding the recurring revenue base.
- Real Estate & Land Monetization: GMR Interchange (first GMR retail project, ~0.77 Mn sq.ft. at Delhi) nearing completion. Waldorf Astoria (150 rooms) and Hilton (350 rooms) hotel projects signed at DIAL. At Hyderabad, satellite R&D facility agreement signed. Goa: 4 hotel projects (~0.75 Mn sq.ft.) under progress.
- ESR GMR Logistics Park: 70% stake acquired in EGLPPL (ESR GMR Logistics Park) — now 100% subsidiary of GHIAL; strengthening industrial warehousing near airport.
- GMR Innovex: Digital innovation arm developing advanced airport solutions, smart technology integration, and passenger experience platforms.
India Aviation Sector Context
India’s aviation market is the world’s 5th largest and one of the fastest-growing globally. FY25 marked a landmark year: domestic passenger traffic surged 9.1% to 335 million — exceeding pre-COVID levels by 22% — while international traffic climbed 10.7% to 77 million. The combined traffic of 412 million passengers demonstrates the structural strength of India’s aviation demand.
India’s Civil Aviation Ministry targets 200+ operational airports by 2030, with UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik) scheme connecting tier-2 and tier-3 cities. India is expected to overtake China as the world’s #3 aviation market by 2025, and reach 500 million passengers by 2030 — making it one of the most compelling long-duration infrastructure investment themes globally.
| Metric | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY27E | FY30E |
| Domestic Pax (Mn) | 237 | 306 | 335 | 420 | 500+ |
| International Pax (Mn) | 55 | 70 | 77 | 100 | 140+ |
| Total Pax (India) | 292 | 376 | 412 | 520 | 640+ |
| Aircraft Fleet Size | ~700 | ~750 | ~830 | ~1,000+ | ~1,500+ |
| No. of Operational Airports | ~148 | ~155 | ~160 | ~175 | ~220 |
| GMR India Pax Share | ~27% | ~27% | ~27.5% | ~25-28% | ~28-30% |
Key demand drivers: rising per-capita incomes, deep aviation penetration in tier-2/3 cities via UDAN, record aircraft orders (IndiGo: 980 planes, Air India: 570 planes), and normalizing international routes. GMR’s 27.5% share of India’s passenger traffic means it is a leveraged play on India’s aviation growth — every 1% growth in India’s passenger traffic translates directly to incremental revenue for GMR.
Financial Analysis
Revenue & EBITDA Trend (Consolidated, ₹ Crores)
| Metric | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 9M FY26 | FY26E |
| Total Revenue | ~8,500 | ~10,800 | 13,733 | ~10,958 | ~15,500+ |
| EBITDA | ~4,100 | ~5,500 | ~6,000 | ~4,485 | ~7,000+ |
| EBITDA Margin | ~48% | ~51% | ~44% | ~41% | ~45%+ |
| Finance Costs | High | High | High | High | Reducing (refinancing) |
| Net Profit / (Loss) | (Loss) | (Loss) | (₹181 Cr) | Near breakeven | Positive by FY27 |
| Airport-level EBITDA | ~INR 46.5B (FY25 incl. JV proforma) | — | — | — | ~INR 65B+ by FY27E |
Note: GMR’s consolidated financials show net losses due to high depreciation and finance costs — a structural feature of airport infrastructure concession models, not an operational weakness. Airport-level EBITDA margins (DIAL: ~60-65%, GHIAL: ~68%) are strong and improving. The company’s profitability should turn sustainably positive in FY27 as Bhogapuram commences, CP4 tariffs flow through fully, and debt reduction begins.
Quarterly Performance (₹ Crores, Consolidated)
| Quarter | Total Income | EBITDA | EBITDA Margin | Net Profit / (Loss) | YoY Revenue Growth |
| Q3 FY25 (Dec 2024) | ~₹2,653 | ~₹1,083 | ~41% | ₹202 Cr | Base quarter |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar 2025) | ~₹2,863 | ~₹1,010 | ~35% | — | Strong |
| Q1 FY26 (Jun 2025) | ₹3,205 | ₹1,165 | ~36% | (₹212 Cr) | ~33% YoY |
| Q2 FY26 (Sep 2025) | ₹3,670 | ₹1,531 | ~42% | (₹37 Cr) | ~47% YoY |
| Q3 FY26 (Dec 2025) | ₹4,083 | ₹1,789 | ~44% | ₹173 Cr* | ~49% YoY |
| 9M FY26 Total | ~₹10,958 | ~₹4,485 | ~41% | Near breakeven | ~43% YoY avg |
*Q3 FY26 net profit of ₹173 Cr reflects an exceptional item loss of ₹183 Cr. Pre-exceptional operating profit is significantly higher. Q3 FY25 had an exceptional gain of ₹408 Cr — making the YoY comparison unfavorable at net level despite superior operating performance in Q3 FY26.
DIAL (Delhi Airport) — Flagship Asset — CP4 Tariff Impact
The implementation of the AERA-issued CP4 (Control Period 4) Final Tariff Order for DIAL was the single most important financial catalyst for GMR in FY26. The new tariffs, effective from Q2 FY26, significantly raised aeronautical revenue per passenger. Delhi Airport’s regulated model guarantees a 15.5% Return on Equity (RoE) on the aeronautical asset base, with 85-90% of capital expenditure classified as aeronautical — providing a de-risked, predictable revenue floor.
| Metric | Pre-CP4 (FY25) | Post-CP4 (Q2/Q3 FY26) | Change |
| Delhi Aero Revenue | Base level | Significantly higher | CP4 tariff step-up |
| Delhi EBITDA Margin | ~55-58% | ~62-65% (target) | Margin expansion |
| Revenue per Pax (Aero) | ~₹700 (est.) | ~₹900-1,000 (est.) | ~30-40% increase |
| Credit Rating (DIAL) | IND AA- | IND AA (upgraded) | Positive outlook |
Key Financial Ratios
| Ratio | Value | Commentary |
| Market Cap | ~₹1,05,379 Cr | $12.5B — Asia’s largest private airport platform |
| EV/EBITDA (FY26E) | ~18-20x | In line with global airport peers (Fraport, ADP ~20-25x) |
| EBITDA Margin (Airport) | ~68% (GHIAL), ~62-65% (DIAL) | World-class airport EBITDA margins |
| Gross Debt | ~₹29,000-31,000 Cr | Peak debt; to begin declining post Bhogapuram commissioning |
| Revenue CAGR (FY23-FY26E) | ~20-22% | Strong top-line compounding from traffic + tariff |
| EBITDA CAGR (FY23-FY26E) | ~18-20% | Accelerating as CP4 tariffs and non-aero kick in |
| Promoter Holding | 66.2% | Strong majority; stable and committed management |
| Credit Rating (GAL) | CARE A; Stable (upgraded from BBB+) | 2-notch upgrade signals risk reduction |
Strategic Developments & Catalysts
1. CP4 Tariff Order — The Revenue Windfall
The AERA Final Tariff Order for DIAL CP4 — long-awaited and now implemented from Q2 FY26 — is the most significant near-term financial catalyst. The order legitimizes higher aeronautical tariffs, provides regulatory certainty for the next 5-year control period, and drives directly observable revenue growth. Q2 FY26 (47% YoY) and Q3 FY26 (49% YoY) revenue surges confirm the transformative impact. The full annualized benefit will be visible in FY27E numbers.
2. Bhogapuram (Vizag) Greenfield Airport — Q2 FY27 Commissioning
Bhogapuram International Airport in Andhra Pradesh — built under EPC contract with L&T — is 95.8% complete as of Q3 FY26. Airside (95.8%), Terminal (72%), and ATC Tower (87%) are all progressing simultaneously. The airport targets commissioning in Q2 FY27, serving Visakhapatnam and surrounding industrial belt. Phase 1 capacity: 4 million passengers per annum, expandable to higher capacities. GMR holds a 100% stake. Once operational, Bhogapuram adds ~₹400-600 Cr annual revenue (FY28E) with high incremental EBITDA margins as debt servicing is pre-funded.
3. Non-Aero Business Expansion — Duty Free, Cargo, Real Estate
- Delhi Duty Free: GMR took over operations from Jul 2025 — shifting from revenue-share model to own P&L contribution. This is a high-margin direct retail business that meaningfully improves per-passenger economics at DIAL.
- Cargo City SPV: Delhi Cargo City project — ₹7.5 Bn project loan sanctioned for GCLL (GMR Cargo and Logistics) to develop a state-of-the-art cargo handling facility at DIAL. Long-term value creation for freight/logistics.
- Real Estate: GMR Interchange (₹0.77 Mn sq.ft.) at DIAL expected operational in FY26. Waldorf Astoria + Hilton branded hotels at Delhi; Taj Vivanta (170-room) at Hyderabad; satellite R&D facility at Hyderabad. Land bank at DIAL: 100+ acres; Hyderabad has low 4% royalty vs DIAL’s 46% — making Hyderabad land development particularly value-accretive.
4. Debt Refinancing & Credit Rating Upgrades
- GHIAL: Raised INR 21 Bn via 15-year NCDs at 7.6% p.a. to refinance dollar-denominated debt — saving 150+ bps in interest costs. CRISIL revised GHIAL outlook to ‘Positive’ (was ‘Stable’).
- GAL (Parent): CARE upgraded from BBB+ to CARE A — a 2-notch upgrade signaling improved financial stability.
- DIAL: India Ratings upgraded from IND AA- to IND AA with Stable Outlook — top-tier credit status.
- CRISIL assigned A+/Stable for proposed ₹60 Bn NCDs — enabling further refinancing at better rates.
5. International Portfolio — Crete & Southeast Asia
- Crete Airport (Greece): 65% construction complete. Debt-free project. Expected handover targeted per schedule. Once operational, Crete provides Euro-denominated, stable aeronautical revenue from a high-traffic tourist destination, diversifying GMR’s revenue geography.
- Medan Airport (Indonesia): Q1 FY26 — 1.76M pax (+3.2% YoY); EBITDA +38% YoY. Strong emerging market airport growth contributing to portfolio.
Investment Thesis
Bull Case — Why ACCUMULATE?
- CP4 Tariff Windfall Flowing In: The regulatory catalyst is no longer a ‘hope’ — it’s a reality embedded in Q2-Q3 FY26 numbers (47-49% revenue growth). Full annualized benefit will be visible in FY27, driving further earnings acceleration and potential PAT breakeven.
- India Aviation Megatrend: 335M domestic pax (FY25) targeting 500M by FY30. GMR’s 27.5% share = 8.25 Mn incremental passengers for every 30 Mn of India’s growth. Structural, long-duration demand tailwind.
- Bhogapuram: New Asset, Zero Incremental Capex Risk: At 95.8% completion, the major capex risk is behind us. Once operational (Q2 FY27), it adds ~₹500 Cr in incremental revenue with minimal additional investment — pure earnings accretion.
- Non-Aero Revenue Diversification: Delhi Duty Free + Cargo City + Real Estate = three high-margin, non-tariff-regulated revenue streams. GHIAL’s adjacency businesses (MRO, logistics, hospitality) are scaling. Per-passenger non-aero revenue is growing faster than aero — improving overall margin quality.
- Debt Refinancing Savings: GHIAL’s 150+ bps interest saving on ₹21 Bn = ~₹315 Cr annual finance cost reduction. As more debt is refinanced in INR at lower rates, consolidated finance costs will moderate, boosting PAT disproportionately.
- Credit Rating Upgrades Reduce Cost of Capital: CARE A (GAL), IND AA (DIAL), CRISIL AA+ Positive (GHIAL) — three simultaneous upgrades reduce future borrowing costs and improve investor confidence.
- Regulated Return Model — Downside Protection: JV airports (DIAL, GHIAL) operate under a regulated framework guaranteeing 15.5% RoE on the aeronautical asset base. This provides a contractual revenue floor even if passenger volumes decline, making GMR’s revenue more predictable than it appears.
- International Portfolio — Option Value: Crete (Greece) is debt-free, targeted on schedule, and adds Euro-denominated stable income. Medan (Indonesia) is growing at 38% EBITDA. These assets provide diversification and geographic breadth at essentially no incremental near-term cost.
Bear Case — Key Risks
- High Gross Debt (~₹30,000 Cr): The single most significant risk. High finance costs cause consolidated net losses and limit near-term dividend capacity. Any interest rate increase or refinancing difficulty could pressure the stock sharply.
- Regulatory Risk: AERA Tariff Orders are subject to TDSAT (Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal) appeals and legal challenges. The CP4 tariff itself has seen legal complexity (HRAB recalculation). Any adverse order could reduce aeronautical revenues materially.
- Revenue-Share Obligation: DIAL pays 45.99% of gross revenue to AAI (Airports Authority of India). GHIAL pays 4%. Goa pays ~25-37% effective revenue share. These are fixed obligations that compress GMR’s net economic benefit regardless of traffic performance.
- Project Execution Risk: Bhogapuram, Crete, and Nagpur are all in development. Delays, cost overruns, or regulatory clearance issues could extend the capital-intensive phase and defer revenue contributions.
- Airline Concentration: IndiGo controls ~60% of domestic traffic in India. Any financial difficulty or route changes at IndiGo disproportionately impacts DIAL and GHIAL volumes.
- Exceptional Items Volatility: Q3 FY25 had an exceptional gain of ₹408 Cr while Q3 FY26 had an exceptional loss of ₹183 Cr. Such items make quarterly PAT highly volatile and difficult to predict.
- Global Macro Risk: A global recession reducing international travel, geopolitical events impacting aviation, or significant jet fuel price spikes (which reduce airline capacity) would impact traffic growth assumptions.
Technical Outlook
| Level | Price (₹) | Significance |
| Strong Support | ₹84-88 | 52-wk range base; strong demand zone |
| Immediate Support | ₹94-98 | Recent consolidation; buy on dips |
| Current Zone | ₹100-105 | 9-month high recaptured; bullish momentum |
| Immediate Resistance | ₹110-115 | Prior 52-week high zone; needs breakout |
| 6M Target | ₹125 | ~23% upside; EV/EBITDA re-rating |
| 12M Target | ₹155 | ~52% upside; Bhogapuram + Crete commissioning |
| Stop Loss | ₹84 | Below 52-wk low zone for active traders |
The stock surged 7% post Q3 FY26 results (Feb 2026) to reclaim the ₹100+ level, validating the fundamental re-rating thesis. A sustained close above ₹110 would signal the next leg up. Multiple technical analysts cite targets of ₹119 to ₹182 for positional traders. The 52-week gain of ~60%+ from the low signals strong institutional re-rating in progress.
Valuation Methodology & Target Price
6-Month Target: ₹125
We apply an EV/EBITDA of ~20x on FY26E EBITDA of ~₹7,000 Cr. This yields an Enterprise Value of ~₹1,40,000 Cr. Subtracting gross debt of ~₹30,000 Cr and adding back minority interests / non-airport assets, we derive an equity value of approximately ₹1,15,000-1,20,000 Cr, or ~₹118-124 per share. With execution on non-aero businesses, we round up to ₹125. This represents a modest premium to current EV/EBITDA of ~18-19x, justified by the CP4 tariff tailwind and Bhogapuram approaching commissioning.
12-Month Target: ₹155
For the 12-month target, we use FY27E EBITDA of ~₹9,000 Cr (Bhogapuram online + full CP4 benefit + non-aero ramp) and apply a 20x EV/EBITDA multiple. This delivers an EV of ~₹1,80,000 Cr. Net of debt (post-Bhogapuram debt but pre-repayment starting), we arrive at equity value of approximately ₹1,55,000-1,60,000 Cr, or ~₹150-158 per share. Peer airports globally (ADP, Fraport, Airports of Thailand) trade at 18-25x EV/EBITDA. GMR’s superior growth profile (vs mature European peers) supports the 20x multiple.
Global Peer Comparison
| Company | Country | EV/EBITDA | Revenue Growth | Pax Growth | Traffic Scale |
| GMR Airports (GMRAIRPORT) | India | ~18-20x | ~45-50% (FY26E) | ~4-5% YoY | 120M+ globally |
| Airports of Thailand (AOT) | Thailand | ~25-30x | ~20-25% | ~10-15% YoY | 80-90M |
| Fraport AG | Germany | ~15-18x | ~8-12% | ~5-8% YoY | 65-70M |
| ADP (Paris Airports) | France | ~18-22x | ~10-12% | ~5-7% YoY | 100M+ |
| GMW (Mumbai Intl.) | India | ~20-25x | ~15-20% | ~8-10% YoY | 50-60M |
| Adani Airports | India | Unlisted | High | High | ~70M India |
Risk Matrix
| Risk | Severity | Likelihood | Mitigation | GMR-Specific Note |
| High Gross Debt | High | Ongoing | Refinancing at lower rates; debt reduction post FY27 | Bhogapuram debt peaks in FY26; repayments begin FY27+ |
| Regulatory Tariff Risk | High | Low-Med | Regulated model; TDSAT recourse | CP4 in force; HRAB settled; CP5 still 5 years away |
| Revenue Share to AAI | Medium | Certain | Structural; factored in projections | DIAL 45.99%; GHIAL 4%; Goa ~25% |
| Project Delays | Medium | Low (Bhog.) | EPC L&T contract; advanced progress | Bhogapuram at 95.8%; risk largely behind us |
| Airline Concentration | Medium | Low-Med | Diversified airport portfolio; internat’l traffic | IndiGo ~60% domestic; regulated floor buffers impact |
| Exceptional Items | Low-Med | High (Ongoing) | Operational profit is key metric | Adjust for exceptional items in analysis |
| Global Macro / Aviation | Medium | Low | Diversified geography; regulated revenue floor | Domestic India aviation is resilient vs global downturns |
Recommendation Summary
ACCUMULATE | CMP: ₹102 | 6M Target: ₹125 (~23%) | 12M Target: ₹155 (~52%)
GMR Airports is India’s premier pure-play private airport infrastructure company. The company is navigating a well-charted path from a high-capex, loss-making development phase to a cash-flow-positive, regulated-return maturity phase. The key milestones — CP4 tariff implementation, Bhogapuram commissioning, debt refinancing, and non-aero revenue diversification — are all on track or already delivered.
For investors with a 12-18 month horizon and tolerance for infrastructure-style volatility, GMR presents a compelling accumulation opportunity in the ₹95-108 zone. The 52% upside potential to our 12-month target of ₹155 is backed by tangible operational catalysts, a regulated revenue model, and India’s secular aviation growth story.
We recommend accumulating on any dips below ₹100 and holding through the Bhogapuram commissioning (Q2 FY27) milestone — which we believe will be the principal re-rating catalyst for the stock.
DISCLAIMER
This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from GMR investor presentations, NSE/BSE filings, Screener.in, and industry sources.
